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理论统计(英文版)
《理论统计(英文版)》是一本内容简明,结构严谨的理论统计教科书,内容包括自助法、非参数回归、同变估计、经验贝叶斯、序贯设计和分析。
《理论统计(英文版)》各章有丰富的习题,解答在附录中提供。读者需具备微积分、线性代数、概率论、数学分析和拓扑等数学基础知识。目次:概率和测度;指数族;风险,充分性,完整性;无偏估计;曲指数族;条件分布;贝叶斯估计;大样本理论;估计方程和大概似值;同变估计;经验贝叶斯法和收缩估计;假设检验;高维优化试验等。
This book evolved from my notes for a three-semester sequence of core courses on theoretical statistics for doctoral students at the University of Michigan. When I first started teaching these courses, I used Theory of Poin,t Estimation and Testing Statistical Hypotheses by Lehmann as texts, classic books that have certainly influenced my writings.
To appreciate this book students will need a background in advanced cal culus, linear algebra, probability, and some analysis. Some of this material is reviewed in the appendices. And, although the content on statistics is reasonably self-contained, prior knowledge of theoretical and applied statistics will be essential for most readers. In teaching core courses, my philosophy has been to try to expose students to as many of the central theoretical ideas and topics in the discipline as possible. Given the growth of statistics in recent years, such exposition can only be achieved in three semesters by sacrificing depth. Although basic material presented in early chapters of the book is covered carefully, many of the later chapters provide brief introductions to areas that could take a full semester to develop in detail. The role of measure theory in advanced statistics courses deserves careful consideration. Although few students will need great expertise in probability and measure, all should graduate conversant enough with the basics to read and understand research papers in major statistics journals, at least in their areas of specialization. Many, if not most, of these papers will be written using the language of measure theory, if not all of its substance. As a practical matter, to prepare for thesis research many students will want to begin studying advanced methods as soon as possible, often before they have finished a course on measure and probability. In this book I follow an approach that makes such study possible. Chapter 1 introduces probability and measure theory, stating many of the results used most regularly in statistics. Although this material cannot replace an honest graduate course on probability, it gives most students the background and tools they need to read and understand most theoretical derivations in statistics. As we use this material in the rest of the book, I avoid esoteric mathematical details unless they are central to a proper understanding of issues at hand. In addition to the intrinsic value of concepts from measure theory, there are several other advantages to this approach. First, results in the book can be stated precisely and at their proper level of generality, and most of the proofs presented are essentially rigorous. In addition, the use of material from probability, measure theory, and analysis in a statistical context will help students appreciate its value and will motivate some to study and learn probability at a deeper level. Although this approach is a challenge for some students, and may make some statistical issues a bit harder to understand and appreciate, the advantages outweigh these concerns. As a caveat I should mention that some sections and chapters, mainly later in the book, are more technical than most and may not be accessible without a sufficient background in mathematics. This seems unavoidable to me; the topics considered cannot be covered properly otherwise.
1 Probability and Measure
1.1 Measures 1.2 Integration 1.3 Events, Probabilities, and Random Variables 1.4 Null Sets 1.5 Densities 1.6 Expectation 1.7 Random Vectors 1.8 Covariance Matrices 1.9 Product Measures and Independence 1.10 Conditional Distributions 1.11 Problems 2 Exponential Families 2.1 Densities and Parameters 2.2 Differential Identities 2.3 Dominated Convergence 2.4 Moments, Cumulants, and Generating Functions 2.5 Problems 3 Risk, Sufficiency, Completeness, and Ancillarity 3.1 Models, Estimators, and Risk Functions 3.2 Sufficient Statistics 3.3 Factorization Theorem 3.4 Minimal Sufficiency 3.5 Completeness 3.6 Convex Loss and the Rao-Blackwell Theorem 3.7 Problems 4 Unbiased Estimation 4.1 Minimum Variance Unbiased Estimators 4.2 Second Thoughts About Bias 4.3 Normal One-Sample Problem——Distribution Theory 4.4 Normal One-Sample Problem——Estimation 4.5 Variance Bounds and Information 4.6 Variance Bounds in Higher Dimensions 4.7 Problems 5 Curved Exponential Families 5.1 Constrained Families 5.2 Sequential Experiments 5.3 Multinomial Distribution and Contingency Tables 5.4 Problems 6 Conditional Distributions 6.1 Joint and Marginal Densities 6.2 Conditional Distributions 6.3 Building Models 6.4 Proof of the Factorization Theorem 6.5 Problems 7 Bayesian Estimation 7.1 Bayesian Models and the Main Result 7.2 Examples 7.3 Utility Theory 7.4 Problems 8 Large-Sample Theory 8.1 Convergence in Probability 8.2 Convergence in Distribution 8.3 Maximum Likelihood Estimation 8.4 Medians and Percentiles 8.5 Asymptotic Relative Efficiency 8.6 Scales of Magnitude 8.7 Almost Sure Convergence 8.8 Problems 9 Estimating Equations and Maximum Likelihood 9.1 Weak Law for Random Functions 9.2 Consistency of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator 9.3 Limiting Distribution for the MLE 9.4 Confidence Intervals 9.5 Asymptotic Confidence Intervals 9.6 EM Algorithm: Estimation from Incomplete Data 9.7 Limiting Distributions in Higher Dimensions 9.8 M-Estimators for a Location Parameter 9.9 Models with Dependent Observations 9.10 Problems 10 Equivariant Estimation 10.1 Group Structure 10.2 Estimation 10.3 Problems 11 Empirical Bayes and Shrinkage Estimators 11.1 Empirical Bayes Estimation 11.2 Risk of the James-Stein Estimator 11.3 Decision Theory 11.4 Problems 12 Hypothesis Testing 12.1 Test Functions, Power, and Significance 12.2 Simple Versus Simple Testing 12.3 Uniformly Most Powerful Tests 12.4 Duality Between Testing and Interval Estimation 12.5 Generalized Neyman-Pearson Lemma 12.6 Two-Sided Hypotheses 12.7 Unbiased Tests 12.8 Problems 13 Optimal Tests in Higher Dimensions 13.1 Marginal and Conditional Distributions 13.2 UMP Unbiased Tests in Higher Dimensions 13.3 Examples 13.4 Problems 14 General Linear Model 14.1 Canonical Form 14.2 Estimation 14.3 Gauss-Markov Theorem 14.4 Estimating σ2 14.5 Simple Linear Regression 14.6 Noncentral F and Chi-Square Distributions 14.7 Testing in the General Linear Model 14.8 Simultaneous Confidence Intervals 14.9 Problems 15 Bayesian Inference: Modeling and Computation 15.1 Hierarchical Models 15.2 Bayesian Robustness 15.3 Markov Chains 15.4 Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm 15.5 Gibbs Sampler 15.6 Image Restoration 15.7 Problems 16 Asymptotic Optimality 16.1 Superefficiency 16.2 Contiguity 16.3 Local Asymptotic Normality 16.4 Minimax Estimation of a Normal Mean 16.5 Posterior Distributions 16.6 Locally Asymptotically Minimax Estimation 16.7 Problems 17 Large-Sample Theory for Likelihood Ratio Tests 17.1 Generalized Likelihood Ratio Tests 17.2 Asymptotic Distribution of 2 log A 17.3 Examples 17.4 Wald and Score Tests 17.5 Problems 18 Nonparametric Regression 18.1 Kernel Methods 18.2 Hilbert Spaces 18.3 Splines 18.4 Density Estimation 18.5 Problems 19 Bootstrap Methods 19.1 Introduction 19.2 Bias Reduction 19.3 Parametric Bootstrap Confidence Intervals 19.4 Nonparametric Accuracy for Averages 19.5 Problems 20 Sequential Methods 20.1 Fixed Width Confidence Intervals 20.2 Stopping Times and Likelihoods 20.3 Optimal Stopping 20.4 Sequential Probability Ratio Test 20.5 Sequential Design 20.6 Problems A Appendices A.1 Functions A.2 Topology and Continuity in Rn A.3 Vector Spaces and the Geometry of Rn A.4 Manifolds and Tangent Spaces A.5 Taylor Expansion for Functions of Several Variables A.6 Inverting a Partitioned Matrix A.7 Central Limit Theory A.7.1 Characteristic Functions A.7.2 Central Limit Theorem A.7.3 Extensions B Solutions B.1 Problems of Chapter 1 B.2 Problems of Chapter 2 B.3 Problems of Chapter 3 B.4 Problems of Chapter 4 B.5 Problems of Chapter 5 B.6 Problems of Chapter 6 B.7 Problems of Chapter 7 B.8 Problems of Chapter 8 B.9 Problems of Chapter 9 B.10 Problems of Chapter 10 B.11 Problems of Chapter 11 B.12 Problems of Chapter 12 B.13 Problems of Chapter 13 B.14 Problems of Chapter 14 B.17 Problems of Chapter 17 References Index
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