同类多产品并存扩散是一种很普遍的市场现象，如智能手机、平板电脑、新能源汽车等。因此，掌握多产品扩散规律不仅对于企业制定研发计划和营销策略十分重要，对于消费者选购产品也很有参考价值。对多产品扩散模型的研究有宏观和微观两种建模方法。基于宏观建模方法的多产品扩散模型已经有很多，但是这种模型存在一个很大的弊端，就是无法从微观层面解释宏观扩散结果，这严重限制了宏观模型的应用。另外，目前基于微观建模方法的多产品扩散模型还非常少，品牌竞争与代际替代并存的多产品扩散模型还未出现，而且仅有的少数模型均未经真实销售数据验证，只适用于理论分析，应用价值有限。基于上述情况，笔者用微观建模与仿真方法系统研究了3种情形下的多产品扩散问题。

乔健，西北工业大学管理学院副教授、硕士生导师。2006年12月于西安交通大学获得管理学博士学位。2013年12月赴美国亚利桑那大学埃勒管理学院访学1年。2015~2018年任信息管理系主任。兼任信息系统协会中国分会、陕西省应急管理学会和陕西省软科学研究会理事。担任European Journal of Operational Research、IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics、Fuzzy Sets and Systems、IEEE/CAA Journal of Automatica Sinica、西安交通大学学报(自然版)、中国公路学报、长安大学学报(自然科学版)、南京航空航天大学学报(英文版)、系统仿真学报等期刊的匿名审稿人。

第1章 绪论··········································································································1
1.1 研究背景及意义······················································································1
1.2 研究进展·································································································3
1.2.1 多产品扩散模型··········································································4
1.2.2 线上口碑对扩散过程的影响·······················································6
1.2.3 社交网络对扩散过程的影响·······················································8
1.2.4 研究进展述评··············································································9
1.3 研究内容·······························································································10
1.3.1 消费者决策分析········································································10
1.3.2 多代产品扩散仿真····································································11
1.3.3 多品牌产品扩散仿真································································12
1.3.4 多品牌多代产品扩散仿真·························································12
1.4 研究思路及方法····················································································12
1.4.1 消费者决策分析········································································12
1.4.2 多代产品扩散仿真····································································13
1.4.3 多品牌产品扩散仿真································································13
1.4.4 多品牌多代产品扩散仿真·························································14
1.5 主要创新·······························································································14
1.6 本章小结·······························································································15
第2 章 相关理论与技术·····················································································16
2.1 效用理论·······························································································16
2.1.1 概述···························································································16
2.1.2 效用函数的由来········································································16
2.1.3 消费者偏好················································································17
2.1.4 效用函数的类型········································································18
2.1.5 边际效用····················································································19
2.1.6 期望效用····················································································20
2.1.7 间接效用····················································································21
2.1.8 预算约束····················································································21
2.2 模糊集理论····························································································22
2.2.1 概述···························································································22
2.2.2 概念定义····················································································23
2.2.3 模糊逻辑····················································································25
2.3 网络科学·······························································································28
2.3.1 概述···························································································28
2.3.2 网络属性····················································································29
2.3.3 网络模型····················································································32
2.4 ABMS理论与技术················································································35
2.4.1 什么是Agent ·············································································35
2.4.2 基于Agent的模型····································································36
2.4.3 Repast Symphony建模仿真平台···············································38
2.4.4 Mesa建模仿真框架···································································41
2.5 本章小结·······························································································44
第3章 消费者决策分析·····················································································46
3.1 购买决策分析························································································46
3.1.1 消费者属性················································································46
3.1.2 产品属性····················································································49
3.1.3 社会环境····················································································53
3.2 评论决策分析························································································55
3.3 本章小结·······························································································55
第4章 多代产品扩散仿真·················································································57
4.1 多代产品扩散模型设计········································································57
4.1.1 多代产品子模型········································································57
4.1.2 消费者Agent子模型·································································58
4.1.3 社交网络子模型········································································67
4.1.4 总体框架····················································································67
4.2 多代产品扩散仿真实验········································································68
4.2.1 模型验证····················································································68
4.2.2 敏感性分析················································································74
4.2.3 购买者动力学分析····································································86
4.2.4 延伸讨论····················································································88
4.3 本章小结·······························································································88
第5章 多品牌产品扩散仿真·············································································90
5.1 多品牌产品扩散模型设计····································································90
5.1.1 多品牌产品子模型····································································90
5.1.2 消费者Agent子模型·································································91
5.1.3 社交网络子模型········································································96
5.1.4 总体框架····················································································97
5.2 多品牌产品扩散仿真实验····································································97
5.2.1 模型验证····················································································98
5.2.2 敏感性分析··············································································101
5.2.3 购买者动力学分析··································································117
5.2.4 延伸讨论··················································································122
5.3 本章小结·····························································································123
第6章 多品牌多代产品扩散仿真···································································125
6.1 多品牌多代产品扩散模型设计···························································125
6.1.1 多品牌多代产品子模型··························································125
6.1.2 消费者Agent子模型·······························································126
6.1.3 社交网络子模型······································································131
6.1.4 总体框架··················································································132
6.2 多品牌多代产品扩散仿真实验···························································136
6.2.1 模型验证··················································································136
6.2.2 敏感性分析··············································································141
6.2.3 购买者动力学分析··································································146
6.2.4 延伸讨论··················································································150
6.3 本章小结·····························································································151
第7章 总结与展望··························································································153
7.1 总结·····································································································153
7.2 展望·····································································································155
参考文献··············································································································157