《气候变化影响下我国典型海岸带演变趋势与脆弱性评估》是《近50年我国典型海岸带演变过程与原因分析》的姐妹篇，后者在大量实测资料和综合分析的基础上定量给出了近50年我国典型海岸带的演变过程和主要影响因子。《气候变化影响下我国典型海岸带演变趋势与脆弱性评估》主要介绍我国典型海岸带在全球变化胁迫下至2030年、2050年及2100年的演变趋势，并提出相应的应对策略。全书由5部分组成，分别为：典型海岸带冲淤演变趋势与影响分析；典型海岸带盐水入侵演变趋势与影响分析；典型海岸带生态系统景观格局演变趋势与影响分析；典型河口水域渔业生态系统演变趋势与影响分析；典型海岸带脆弱性评估与应用示范。 　　《气候变化影响下我国典型海岸带演变趋势与脆弱性评估》可供国家和地方有关决策部门的管理人员，以及从事全球变化与环境演变、海岸带规划与管理、陆海相互作用及其生态与环境效应等专业的科研人员与高等院校师生参考使用。

更多科学出版社服务，请扫码获取。

目录
前言
第一部分典型海岸带冲淤演变趋势与影响分析1
提要3
引言5
第一章现代黄河三角洲冲淤演变趋势与影响分析6
1.1现代黄河三角洲冲淤演变趋势预测6
1.2现代黄河三角洲冲淤演变影响分析17
1.3应对策略与措施19
第二章长江三角洲冲淤演变趋势与影响分析20
2.1长江三角洲冲淤演变趋势预测20
2.2长江三角洲冲淤演变影响分析33
2.3应对策略与措施40
第三章废黄河三角洲冲淤演变趋势与影响分析41
3.1废黄河三角洲海岸演变趋势41
3.2废黄河三角洲海岸演变的影响分析52
3.3应对策略与措施57
参考文献58
第二部分典型海岸带盐水入侵演变趋势与影响分析65
提要67
引言68
第四章长江河口盐水入侵演变趋势与影响分析71
4.1长江河口三维盐水入侵模式的建立和验证71
4.2气候变化和人类活动对长江河口盐水入侵的影响预测82
4.3盐水入侵对长江河口淡水资源的影响及对策111
第五章珠江河口盐水入侵演变趋势与影响分析120
5.1珠江口三维盐水入侵模式的建立和验证120
5.2气候变化和人类活动对珠江河口盐水入侵的影响预测137
5.3盐水入侵演变对珠江河口淡水资源、生态环境的影响及对策156
参考文献165
第三部分典型海岸带生态系统景观格局演变趋势与影响分析169
提要171
引言173
第六章长江河口盐沼湿地生态系统景观演变趋势与影响分析175
6.1长江口盐沼湿地概况175
6.2海平面上升情景下长江口盐沼湿地景观的演变趋势177
6.3长江口盐沼湿地景观演变的潜在影响188
6.4应对策略与措施198
第七章广西典型红树林生态系统景观演变趋势与影响分析200
7.1典型红树林分布区区域概况200
7.2红树林景观演变对海平面上升响应的原理浅析203
7.3海平面上升情景下典型红树林景观格局演变趋势205
7.4典型红树林生态系统景观演变的原因分析236
7.5红树林景观演变的潜在影响240
7.6应对策略与措施245
第八章海南三亚珊瑚礁生态系统景观演变趋势与影响分析249
8.1三亚湾区域概况249
8.2温度和海水酸度对珊瑚影响的机理浅析251
8.3温度和海水酸度升高背景下三亚湾珊瑚礁生态系统景观演变趋势253
8.4珊瑚礁景观演变的潜在影响260
8.5应对策略与措施260
参考文献261
第四部分典型河口水域渔业生态系统演变趋势与影响分析273
提要275
引言277
第九章气候变化情景下典型河口水域渔业资源演变趋势279
9.1气候变化情景与动态生物气候分室模型279
9.2气候变化情景下典型河口水域渔业资源演变趋势285
第十章气候变化情景下典型河口水域渔业生态系统健康演变趋势305
10.1渔业生态系统健康评价指标体系305
10.2气候变化情景下典型河口水域渔业生态系统健康演变趋势308
第十一章气候变化情景下典型河口水域渔业生态系统可持续发展的应对策略314
11.1气候变化情景下典型河口水域渔业生态系统的响应分析314
11.2气候变化情景下典型河口水域渔业生态系统可持续发展的应对策略317
参考文献320
第五部分典型海岸带脆弱性评估与应用示范325
提要327
引言329
第十二章海平面上升影响下长江口滨海湿地生态系统脆弱性评估331
12.1长江口滨海湿地生态系统331
12.2海平面上升影响下长江口滨海湿地生态系统脆弱性评估模式333
12.3长江口滨海湿地生态系统脆弱性评估指标体系与方法334
12.4海平面上升影响下长江口滨海湿地生态系统脆弱性空间评估338
12.5应用SLAMM模型评价海平面上升对长江口滨海湿地影响341
12.6应对海平面上升对长江口滨海湿地影响的对策与措施347
第十三章海平面上升影响下广西海岸带红树林生态系统脆弱性评估351
13.1广西海岸带红树林生态系统351
13.2海平面上升影响下广西海岸带红树林生态系统脆弱性评估模式352
13.3广西海岸带红树林生态系统脆弱性评估指标体系与脆弱性指数355
13.4海平面上升影响下广西海岸带红树林生态系统脆弱性空间评估360
13.5应对海平面上升对广西海岸带红树林影响的对策与措施364
第十四章气候变化影响下海南三亚珊瑚礁生态系统脆弱性评估368
14.1海南三亚珊瑚礁生态系统369
14.2气候变化影响下珊瑚礁生态系统脆弱性评估模式370
14.3珊瑚礁生态系统脆弱性评估指标体系与脆弱性指数371
14.4气候变化影响下海南三亚珊瑚礁生态系统脆弱性空间评估374
14.5应对气候变化对海南三亚珊瑚礁生态系统影响的对策与措施378
第十五章海平面上升叠加风暴潮影响下上海市社会经济脆弱性评估379
15.1上海地区自然地理条件380
15.2上海市社会经济概况380
15.3海平面上升叠加风暴潮导致的洪涝灾害情景模拟383
15.4海平面上升叠加风暴潮影响下上海市社会经济脆弱性评估模式389
15.5社会经济脆弱性评估指标体系与脆弱性指数392
15.6海平面上升叠加风暴潮影响下上海市社会经济脆弱性空间评估398
15.7海平面上升叠加风暴潮导致的洪涝灾害的应对策略与措施401
参考文献406
Contents
Foreword
Part I Evolution trend and influence of erosion and deposition in the typical coastal zones1
Abstract3
Introduction5
Chapter 1 Evolution trend and influence of erosion and deposition in the Yellow River Delta6
1.1Evolution trend of erosion and deposition in the Yellow River Delta6
1.2Influence of the Yellow River Delta erosion deposition evolution17
1.3Countermeasures 19
Chapter 2 Evolution trend and influence analysis of erosion and deposition in the Yangtze Delta20
2.1Evolution trend of erosion and deposition in the Yangtze Delta20
2.2Influence of the Yangtze Delta erosion deposition evolution33
2.3Countermeasures40
Chapter 3 Evolution trend and influence of erosion and deposition in the abandoned Yellow River Delta41
3.1Evolution trend of the abandoned Yellow River Delta coast41
3.2Influence of the abandoned Yellow River Delta coast evolution52
3.3Countermeasures57
Reference58
Part Two Evolution trend and influence of the saltwater intrusion in the typical coastal zones65
Abstract 67
Introduction 68
Chapter 4 Evolution trend and influence of the saltwater intrusion in the Yangtze Estuary71
4.1Establishment and validation of the three dimension saltwater intrusion model in the Yangtze Estuary71
4.2Prediction of the influence of climate change and human activity on saltwater intrusion in the Yangtze Estuary82
4.3Influence and countermeasure of saltwater intrusion on freshwater resource in the Yangtze Estuary111
Chapter 5 Evolution trend and influence of the saltwater intrusion in the Pearl Estuary120
5.1Establishment and validation of the three dimension saltwater intrusion model in the Pearl Estuary120
5.2Prediction of the influence of climate change and human activity on saltwater intrusion in the Pearl Estuary137
5.3Influence and countermeasure of saltwater intrusion on freshwater resource and ecological environment in the Pearl Estuary156
References165
Part III Landscape pattern evolution trend and influence in the typical coastal zone169
Abstract171
Introduction173
Chapter 6 Landscape changes and influence of wetland ecosystem in the Yangtze Estuary175
6.1Overview of the salt marshes of the Yangtze River Estuary175
6.2Landscape changes of wetland ecosystem in the Yangtze Estuary under scenarios of sea level rise177
6.3Potential influences of wetland landscape changes in the Yangtze Estuary188
6.4Countermeasures 198
Chapter 7 Landscape changes and influence of typical mangrove ecosystem in Guangxi 200
7.1Overview of typical mangrove ecosystem in Guangxi 200
7.2Principle responses of mangrove landscapes under sea level rise203
7.3Landscape changes of typical mangrove ecosystem under scenarios of sea level rise205
7.4Driving forces of typical mangrove landscape changes236
7.5Potential effects of mangrove landscape changes240
7.6Countermeasures245
Chapter 8 Landscape changes and influence analysis of coral reef ecosystem in the Sanya Bay， Hainan249
8.1Overview of coral reef ecosystem in the Sanya Bay， Hainan249
8.2Principle effects of seawater temperature and acidity on coral growth 251
8.3Landscape changes of coral reefs in the Sanya Bay with the seawater temperature and acidity rises253
8.4Potential effects of coral reef landscape changes in the Sanya Bay260
8.5Countermeasures260
References261
Part IV Evolution trend and influence analysis of fishery ecosystem in the typical estuarine waters273
Abstract275
Introduction277
Chapter 9 Evolution trend of fishery resources in the typical estuaries under climate change scenarios279
9.1Climate change scenarios and Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM)279
9.2Evolution trend of fishery resources in the typical estuaries under climate change scenarios285
Chapter 10 Evolution trend of fishery ecosystem health under climate change scenarios305
10.1The indicator system of fishery ecosystem health305
10.2Evolution trend of fishery ecosystem health under climate change scenarios308
Chapter 11 Countermeasures for sustainable development of fishery ecosystem in typical estuaries under climate change scenarios 314
11.1Response analysis of fishery ecosystem in the typical estuaries under climate change scenarios314
11.2Countermeasures for sustainable development of fishery ecosystem in the typical estuaries under climate change scenarios317
References320
Part Five Vulnerability assessment for the typical coastal zones and its application325
Abstract327
Introduction329
Chapter 12 Vulnerability assessment of the Yangtze Estuarine wetlands under the influence of sea level rise331
12.1The wetland ecosystems in the Yangtze Estuary331
12.2The model for vulnerability assessment on the Yangtze Estuarine wetlands under the influence of sea level rise333
12.3The indicator system and methodology for vulnerability assessment on the Yangtze Estuarine wetlands334
12.4Spatial vulnerability assessment on the Yangtze Estuarine wetlands under influence of sea level rise338
12.5The impact evaluation of sea level rise on the Yangtze Estuarine wetlands using the SLAMM model341
12.6The countermeasures to mitigate the impacts of sea level rise on the Yangtze Estuarine wetland347
Chapter 13 Vulnerability assessment of the mangrove ecosystems in Guangxi under the scenarios of sea level rise 351
13.1The mangrove ecosystems in Guangxi351
13.2The model for vulnerability assessment on the mangrove ecosystems in Guangxi under the influence of sea level rise 352
13.3The vulnerability assessment indicator system and index for evaluating the mangroves in Guangxi355
13.4Spatial vulnerability assessment on the mangroves in Guangxi under the influence of sea level rise360
13.5The countermeasures to mitigate the impacts of sea level rise on the mangroves in Guangxi364
Chapter 14 Vulnerability assessment of the coral reef ecosystems in Sanya， Hainan under the influence of sea level rise368
14.1The coral reef ecosystems in Sanya， Hainan 369
14.2The model for vulnerability assessment on the coral reef ecosystems to climate changes370
14.3The indicator system and index for vulnerability assessment on the coral reef ecosystems371
14.4Spatial vulnerability assessment on the coral reef ecosystems in Sanya， Hainan to climate changes374
14.5The countermeasures to mitigate the impacts of climate changes on the coral reef ecosystems in Sanya， Hainan378
Chapter 15 Assessment of socio economic vulnerability of Shanghai to sea level rise and associated storm surges379
15.1The natural and geographical conditions of Shanghai380
15.2The general socio economic status of Shanghai380
15.3The projections of flooding risk caused by sea level rise and associated storm surges383
15.4The assessment model for socio economic vulnerability in Shanghai to sea level rise and associated storm surges389
15.5The indicator system and vulnerability index for socio economic vulnerability assessment 392
15.6Spatial assessment of the socio economic vulnerability in Shanghai to sea level rise and associated storm surges398
15.7The countermeasures to mitigate the impacts of flooding risks caused by sea level rise and associated storm surges401
References406