本书包含三篇内容。第一篇为体系贡献率评估理论，主要从装备的体系化发展与运用要求出发，建立了体系贡献率评估的研究框架，梳理了支撑贡献率研究的体系工程、系统科学等方面的基础理论，构建了评估基准流程和指标框架，并在每个流程中都有一系列方法作为技术支撑。第二篇为体系贡献率评估方法，主要以典型装备系统体系贡献率评估方法为基础，分别从基于OODA的体系贡献率能效综合评估方法、面向使命任务的体系贡献率能效综合评估方法，以及面向规划计划的项目体系贡献率评估方法三方面开展评估方法研究。第三篇为体系贡献率评估应用，主要围绕装备系统体系贡献率和装备项目体系贡献率两方面的典型案例进行应用验证。本书可作为战略规划部门、装备论证部门、试验鉴定基地和国防工业总体部门开展装备规划论证、装备体系建设与运用等工作的参考书，也可以作为系统工程专业研究生实践教学的参考书。

李小波，男，湖南衡南人。2013年获得国防科技大学系统工程专业博士学位，现为国防科技大学系统工程学院副教授，中国仿真学会人工社会专委会委员。主要研究方向为战略管理与仿真预实践、体系设计与贡献率评估。发表系统工程、建模仿真论文50余篇，其中SCI检索10余篇，获得国家发明专利4项。第一作者论文获得2012亚洲仿真会议最佳论文奖、2018年中国仿真大会优秀论文奖。

第一篇 体系贡献率评估理论
第1 章 体系贡献率评估概述·························································.002
1.1 战略规划视野下的体系贡献率问题背景···································.002
1.1.1 体系贡献率：使命组织发展的核心价值观························.002
1.1.2 面向战略规划研究的体系贡献率问题分析························.004
1.2 体系贡献率的概念特性························································.008
1.2.1 体系贡献率的概念内涵················································.008
1.2.2 体系贡献率的基本特性················································.011
1.3 体系贡献率评估的研究框架··················································.012
1.3.1 问题域研究框架·························································.012
1.3.2 技术域研究框架·························································.014
1.3.3 总体研究框架····························································.014
1.4 体系贡献率评估的研究进展··················································.015
1.4.1 国内研究进展综述······················································.015
1.4.2 国外研究进展综述······················································.023
1.4.3 研究进展小结····························································.026
1.4.4 重点研究方向····························································.027
第2 章 体系贡献率评估的基础理论··············································.029
2.1 复杂系统与复杂网络···························································.029
2.1.1 复杂系统的净贡献概念················································.029
2.1.2 复杂适应系统理论······················································.029
2.1.3 复杂网络理论····························································.030
2.1.4 超网络理论·······························································.030
2.2 体系工程与能力机理···························································.031
2.2.1 体系贡献率的能力基准：基于能力的体系工程思想············.031
2.2.2 体系贡献率的作用原理：体系网络任务链路动量原理·········.035
2.2.3 体系贡献率的成因机理：体系协同、适应与层次涌现特性···.037
2.2.4 体系贡献率的能力培育：作战体系能力生成周期模型·········.040
2.3 体系能力与效能及特性评估··················································.040
2.3.1 体系能力评估····························································.041
2.3.2 体系效能评估····························································.048
2.3.3 体系特性评估····························································.050
2.4 体系仿真实验与认知演化计算···············································.052
2.4.1 体系仿真实验····························································.052
2.4.2 认知演化计算····························································.058
2.4.3 体系动力学仿真·························································.064
第3 章 体系贡献率评估的基准流程··············································.065
3.1 体系贡献率评估需求分析·····················································.065
3.1.1 国家安全战略需求分析················································.066
3.1.2 重要作战方向分析······················································.067
3.1.3 体系使命能力分析······················································.068
3.1.4 作战任务活动分析······················································.069
3.1.5 装备功能要求分析······················································.070
3.1.6 装备评估需求分析······················································.071
3.2 体系贡献率评估方案设计·····················································.072
3.2.1 明确评估问题对象······················································.072
3.2.2 设置军事作战想定······················································.075
3.2.3 构建评估指标框架······················································.076
3.2.4 拟制总体评估方案······················································.077
3.3 体系贡献率全局能力评估·····················································.078
3.3.1 能力评估模型构建······················································.079
3.3.2 多源数据获取融合······················································.080
3.3.3 能力评估模型解算······················································.081
3.3.4 能力贡献结果计算······················································.081
3.3.5 能力评估结果分析······················································.082
3.4 体系贡献率重点效能评估·····················································.083
3.4.1 效能评估方案制定······················································.084
3.4.2 效能仿真想定设置······················································.084
3.4.3 效能仿真实验设计······················································.085
3.4.4 仿真模型开发集成······················································.085
3.4.5 仿真实验运行表现······················································.086
3.4.6 效能贡献计算分析······················································.086
3.5 体系贡献率能效综合评估·····················································.087
3.5.1 效能-能力聚合评估····················································.088
3.5.2 能力-效能迭代评估····················································.088
3.5.3 能力-效能定量建模····················································.089
3.5.4 综合贡献评估解算······················································.090
3.6 体系贡献率评估结果分析·····················································.090
3.6.1 评估结果机理分析······················································.091
3.6.2 评估结果多维展现······················································.091
3.6.3 评估结果决策支持······················································.092
第4 章 体系贡献率评估指标框架··················································.094
4.1 基于体系能力的指标框架·····················································.094
4.1.1 支持贡献率评估的体系能力模型····································.094
4.1.2 面向全域关键能力的体系贡献率评估指标框架··················.096
4.1.3 基于功能-能力聚合的体系贡献率评估指标框架·················.098
4.1.4 基于改进结构方程模型的体系作战能力评估指标框架·········.099
4.2 基于体系效能的指标框架·····················································.102
4.2.1 篮球赛高阶综合评估指标借鉴·······································.102
4.2.2 基于目标任务链路效能的指标框架·································.104
4.2.3 基于使命任务活动效能的指标框架·································.105
4.2.4 基于体系对抗场景效能的指标框架·································.107
4.3 基于能力生成机理的指标框架···············································.109
4.3.1 紧扣体系能力生成机理，以适应度、影响度和重要度为核心··.110
4.3.2 能力与效能指标相结合，基于效能进行能力评估与验证······.111
4.3.3 静态战术技术指标与动态使命任务指标综合·····················.112
4.3.4 基于整体论思想探索体系整体性指标······························.112
4.3.5 综合考虑成本效益等方面的因素，构建全面的指标框架······.114
4.3.6 根据装备种类、问题层次和发展阶段有针对性地建立具体的
综合性指标框架·························································.114
第二篇 体系贡献率评估方法
第5 章 典型装备系统体系贡献率评估方法····································.116
5.1 基于能力的体系贡献率评估方法············································.116
5.1.1 基于作战网络的能力贡献率评估方法······························.116
5.1.2 基于结构的能力贡献率评估方法····································.119
5.1.3 基于RIMER 的能力贡献率评估方法·······························.121
5.1.4 基于架构与矩阵范数的多维度能力贡献率评估方法············.122
5.2 基于效能的体系贡献率评估方法············································.128
5.2.1 基于系统动力学的效能贡献率评估方法···························.128
5.2.2 基于作战环的效能贡献率评估方法·································.130
5.2.3 基于深度置信网络的效能贡献率评估方法························.133
5.2.4 基于价值中心法的效能贡献率评估方法···························.136
5.3 体系贡献率综合评估方法·····················································.137
5.3.1 基于AHP 的定性-定量综合评估方法······························.137
5.3.2 基于SEM 的能力-效能综合评估方法······························.141
5.3.3 基于MMF-OODA 的结构-行为综合评估方法····················.144
5.3.4 多类型体系贡献率综合评估方法····································.145
第6 章 基于OODA 的体系贡献率能效综合评估方法·····················.149
6.1 能效综合评估方法的原理·····················································.149
6.2 能效综合评估方法的实施步骤···············································.150
6.3 体系贡献率评估模型框架·····················································.152
6.4 评估方法的关键支撑技术·····················································.153
6.4.1 基于OODA 功能回路的体系网络建模与分析····················.153
6.4.2 基于效能仿真数据的OODA 功能回路分析·······················.159
6.4.3 基于认知计算的能力-效能综合评估·······························.168
6.5 案例研究··········································································.169
第7 章 面向使命任务的体系贡献率能效综合评估方法···················.175
7.1 面向使命任务的能效综合评估方法框架···································.175
7.1.1 评估问题的输入与输出················································.175
7.1.2 体系贡献率的评估过程················································.176
7.1.3 能效综合分析与评估框架·············································.180
7.2 基于定量HOQ 的指标关联关系分析·······································.181
7.2.1 HOQ 矩阵的构建························································.181
7.2.2 基于仿真实验的QFD 矩阵构建过程································.184
7.3 基于组合赋权TOPSIS 的体系集成方案对比······························.186
7.3.1 TOPSIS····································································.186
7.3.2 使命任务需求满足度评估·············································.186
7.3.3 体系贡献率计算·························································.188
7.4 案例研究··········································································.188
7.4.1 案例背景··································································.188
7.4.2 实验结果及评定·························································.190
7.4.3 结果分析··································································.193
第8 章 面向规划计划的项目体系贡献率评估方法··························.194
8.1 基于能力生成周期模型的项目体系贡献率评估方法····················.194
8.1.1 问题背景分析····························································.194
8.1.2 评估方法的总体框架···················································.199
8.1.3 实施步骤··································································.200
8.2 基于联合使命任务线程的项目体系贡献率评估方法····················.205
8.2.1 联合使命任务线程概述················································.205
8.2.2 实施步骤··································································.207
8.2.3 案例研究··································································.210
第三篇 体系贡献率评估应用
第9 章 装备系统体系贡献率评估应用案例····································.216
9.1 体系贡献率评估方法顶层应用流程·········································.216
9.2 巡飞弹系统体系贡献率的宏观论证·········································.217
9.2.1 基于QFD 的巡飞弹系统体系贡献率需求分析····················.218
9.2.2 巡飞弹系统需求分析中HOQ 的构造过程·························.221
9.2.3 “国家安全战略需求—重要作战方向”HOQ 矩阵的构造·······.229
9.2.4 “重要作战方向—体系使命能力”HOQ 矩阵的构造·············.230
9.2.5 “体系使命能力—作战任务清单”HOQ 矩阵的构造·············.232
9.2.6 “作战任务清单—装备功能需求”HOQ 矩阵的构造·············.234
9.2.7 基于能力需求满足度的体系贡献率宏观论证分析···············.236
9.3 巡飞弹系统体系贡献率的型号装备论证···································.237
9.3.1 基于CCI-CTI 的仿真想定设置分析·································.237
9.3.2 仿真想定设定····························································.238
9.3.3 仿真应用开发····························································.239
9.3.4 仿真实验设计····························································.241
9.3.5 效能贡献率评估分析···················································.243
第10 章 装备项目体系贡献率评估应用案例··································.246
10.1 智能化无人作战力量体系建设需求········································.246
10.1.1 无人装备建设与发展趋势···········································.246
10.1.2 基于“马赛克战”的无人作战力量规划计划与体系筹划设计·······.250
10.2 “马赛克战”作战体系能力生成周期模型的构建·······················.257
10.3 项目与作战体系能力关联建模··············································.258
10.4 基于能力生成周期模型的项目体系贡献率评估·························.265
参考文献························································································.267